The Economy

There is little doubt that we are in a severe recession, but the cause is more important than the fact. In my opinion, there is not much wrong with our economy, nor our ability to build and manufacture things. There are, however real problems of fear and unnecessary worry about the economy.

It is apparent to me that much of the hysteria has been fueled by the news making media. Of course, what happened caused the lenders to shy away from even perfectly good loan requests, crippling small as well as big businesses the banks and lending agencies themselves. We should pause, take a deep breath and suck it up.

Answers being proposed essentially drains our national treasure, through bailouts, and giveaways, and execution of FDR tactics which worked well for a short time, then plunged the economy back into a crushing recession, only to be bailed out by WWII, and all of the equipment and supplies needed to support it. Stimulating the economy through programs to improve infrastructure will put more people to work, but it will squeeze budgets of other critically needed national priorities and swell our national debt. The cost of such actions may approach a trillion dollars in cost, over a short period. This approach parallels just printing more money.

What is the usual result of such actions? Very high inflation, which will be costly to those who do not have seed money to invest after paying for much increased costs of daily needs. Businesses will have to pay much elevated costs to operate and produce. Will this really lift us from the doldrums and set us on a path to recovery?

I say, “No!” But, there is a bright side. I am no investment guru, but I believe that equities will stand still or keep going down, perhaps through 2009. However, there will be fierce competition for operating funds at very high interest levels. If that is true, then those who have money to invest can do well in such environment, and I will practice what I preach. Wait and watch for much higher interest rates on Certificates of Deposits, Municipal, State, and some Federal Bonds. Also, buy trusted equity stocks that pay high dividends. While interest rates are escalating, the issuers, in general, will not recall them, but investors may want to, so get the shortest expiration dates possible and make sure that you can sell them after holding for a short time, because you will want to get into higher interest yield bonds. It stands to reason that interest rates for housing loans will quickly increase as well rising home and real estate prices. So, if you want to buy a house, do it now, while the prices are comparatively low as are mortgage rates. Gold will ride high until the value of the dollar increases, which cannot be envisioned in an inflated economy, so some security can be realized through purchasing of gold. I started six or seven years ago on buying good stocks with high dividend yields, and will continue.

The panic has created major layoffs and manpower reductions by corporations and businesses at all levels, creating more fear. This creates another problem, for no matter how much money is thrown at the problem, the means of production has been somewhat debilitated and restart greatly complicated and time consuming. So, do not look for rapid recovery in most categories of investments.

Of course, you should be consulting with your investment advisor, but my lay opinion on how you can prevent too much future harm to your savings is to hold a good share of your assets in cash and search out the highest interest paying bonds, whether federal, state or municipal. Make sure that they have a high rating, such as AAA, and insured by appropriate high level agencies. Pay attention to when the bonds may be recalled, and duration of the bonds. Buy them for the shortest term possible, because the rates may be quickly increasing, and you want flexibility of selling and repurchasing of a better deal.

Buying such bonds create some problems on their own. The value of the bonds is lower than the purchase price, through much of the duration of the bonds, making it a loss to sell for a number of years. The bonds may be recalled at some specified time, because they can get a better deal. Usually you do not lose money on these transactions.

I consider certificate of deposits as cash, because they are almost always certain to pay off on schedule, and you can build your cash resources and be ready when equities start responding to real stimulus, instead of created or exaggerated bad news.

People who hold their money close to the chest and buy less or refuse to buy hi-value items, only worsen the problem for themselves and others. Banks who refuse to make loans are admitting that they have not been vetting customers seeking loans. Most of them are good candidates for loans, and lenders know for how much. They need to get off of their “duffs,” and solicit those with good credit ratings, so they can get back on their feet, then be more lenient, taking more risks and so on. If the lending agencies do not institute a similar policy, they may not recover, and there is a limit to how many times they can be bailed out by the federal government, because that becomes welfare and a vicious cycle, not contributing to economic recovery.

A good share of people’s spending have changed little, but there are those who have lost buying power and, perhaps, earning power, to the extent that they may have no choice but to turn back perhaps to buying habits of the 1930s.

The SBA should step in and guarantee low interest loans, in earnest to qualified small businesses, encouraging expansion and more risk. Don’t forget that the layoffs are a two edged sword. Businesses can now replace low efficacy employees from the cache of well qualified laid off workers, greatly improving their production and operations.

We can recognize opportunity and increase our confidence by meeting the problem head on and using our imagination and management skills to blunt or reduce the hard consequences of the admittedly, potential disastrous situation. We should try to ignore as much as possible of the media’s sensationalism, and concentrate on our own situation and what we can do about it. We should avoid big explanations and answers to small problems, most of which do not apply to the small businesses that are the mainstay of our economy. I would be more than willing to explore any of this further with anyone interested.

(Signed)
Don L. Bice (Colonel USAF Ret., and Management Consultant)
139 Rorie St.
Batesville, AR 72501
(870) 251 2714

My Christmas Memories

Christmas Eve, and Christmas for that matter, brings so many memories to mind that it would be hard to try and share all of them but I wanted to share some of my most cherished Christmas memories with you.  Family traditions, to me, are really enjoyable to hear about as that is what so much of our time as family is about; the traditions we create that are special to us.  My family tradition was simply to be together, and do whatever came up.  Some times it was either watching movies, or other times, watching favorite shows on TV.  One year that was incredibly memorable for me was when we all watched a Johnny Carson episode where he was reading letters to Santa.  I thought that was about the funniest thing I had seen, or heard, at that age.  That year, as is the case every Christmas Eve, my Mom made all sorts of snack foods, some different each year, that we would enjoy.  My Mom always has been, and will always be, really good at finding some unique things to have to eat, and the staples that we always bet on her having, every year at Christmas.

Christmas Mornings have always been something different in my home, and with my family, have always been great.  My parents have been the kind that knows exactly what to get each of us.  My two older brothers and I are all very different, and that is something too my parents always fostered in us.  They always had something for each of us that we absolutely enjoyed, that was unique to us, and we always had a great Christmas.  One year, I was a bit anxious as any kid under 16 is (and if you were to ask me about my current family, I would tell you that my 28-year old wife is just as bad) and I wandered out to see what Santa had brought.  I was the industrious one, the one who was willing to get up at dark-thirty and see what was out there.  We did have the things that were put out by Santa (Dad), and I had a hunch that year was going to be pretty cool.  Well, I was right.  That year, I had a really cool bike, and so did my brother Noah.  I went out, was completely overjoyed, and I also saw something that struck me odd.  There was something, or rather someone, on the couch looking my direction.  I thought that to be very odd, and while I was not ready or willing to admit it out loud, I was somewhat scared that someone was on our couch.  What makes this so funny to me now, is that it was my Dad, with pillows around him, waiting to make the reveal to my brother and I a true Kodak-Shumate moment.  But, I think the idea of sleeping over came him more than the idea of taking that picture.  He got the picture, later, with us and our bike’s, when the sun was up. 

Another year, when my oldest brother Aaron was with us after he had moved off to Kansas City, we enjoyed another great Christmas.  What both Aaron and I have been accused of is sounding exactly alike, and much to the dismay of my now sister-in-law, I carried on a conversation with her for roughly ten minutes on Christmas morning that year about what I got and how odd she thought some of the presents were.  She finally picked up the whole gig when I told her that I got a really cool remote control racing track, and, knowing Aaron the way she did, decided that something was rotten in the State of Arkansas. 

While most of my Christmas memories have been happy and positive, and have manifested themselves in the form of gifts, there are two years that are very distinct to me, where I learned a great deal about this season we call Christmas, and how through people I saw an attitude and heart that was made of love.  One year, after some incredible financial difficulties in my family, Christmas was something that seemed like more of a distraction than an event.  We had moved from a house to an apartment, and what had been so many years of a tradition was no longer there.  My oldest brother provided Christmas that year.  He did an amazing job, and made it so awesome for all of us, that I saw in him what I have looked up to for so many years.  When I asked him why he did it, it was as simple to him because of what our Dad had done for us for so many years.  He said it would be my turn one day and when it came I could do the same, and when that day comes, I will be ready.  A few years later, I was at home with my parents only, with my brothers having both moved away, and I celebrated with my Mom and Dad.  I remember mostly what I had asked for and I was still oblivious to some of their difficulties, and that morning, a morning I will never in my life forget, I had presents that came as close to what I wanted as they could afford, which was not much.  I was more upset at myself because of what I had asked for, but what I saw, and it hit me like a truck, was the heart that they had and their effort, that no matter what, they were going to provide something for Christmas.  That was one of the most amazing Christmas mornings I had ever had, and quite possibly will ever have.  There, with my Mom and Dad that morning, I saw Christ in my parents, in their love for me and giving all they could, to me.  It has changed me ever since, and I hope that your Christmas Eve events tonight, and your Christmas morning traditions that you have in the morning, that you too will see Christ in everyone around you, and like me on that morning, will be thankful for the gift of family.  A gift that no Tickle Me Elmo, Hannah Montana, or High School Musical could ever, ever touch.  

Thomas Jefferson

Thomas Jefferson wrote a letter to John Taylor in 1816. Here is a small portion of that letter. "And I sincerely believe, with you, that banking establishments are more dangerous than standing armies; and that the principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale."

Anyone have any comments on this quote in light of recent events in the U.S. economy?

Thousands gather in Gaza to mark 21 years since Hamas established

On Sunday 14 December 2008 the streets of Gaza were filled with thousands of Hamas supporters who wore the traditional green color in honor of its creation 21 years ago. In the rally a Hamas man dressed up as the kidnapped IDF soldier St.-Sgt. Gilad Schalit and mocked him by pleading to go home to his family. While many have become aware of the name Hamas most Americans know little about who they are or how they were formed.
Hamas was created in Gaza in 1987 as a as a more militant, Palestinian offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood. The organization which is an Arabic acronym for “zeal” is committed to the destruction of the Jewish state and replacing it with an Islamic state in all of Israel, which they like to call Palestine.

Ideology:
Hamas preaches and engages in violence and terror in order to ring into fruition their plan to destroy the state of Israel and replace it with an Islamic state. However, Hamas is not limited to Gaza or Israel. Hamas is also in the United States. In fact, in the Dallas area we had Hamas for many years. In countries outside of Israel Hamas spreads its virulent hatred of Jews and Judaism which is deeply rooted in the anti-Semitic writings of Muslim Brotherhood theologians.

In August 1988, Hamas issued its Covenant laying down its ideological principles and goals. The goals echoed the notorious Protocols of the Elders of Zion and buy into and proclaim charges that the Jews are involved in an international conspiracy to gain control of the world. They see the Jews as the reason for all of the social and economic problems in the world. In the Hamas' worldview, the existence of a Jewish state in Israel is forbidden in Islamic precepts. According to the Hamas mindset the Jewish people have no legitimate connection to the land of Israel and it is their duty to obliterate the Jews and Israel. While many of the Arab world see Yasir Arafat as a hero Hamas views him as a traitor to the Islamic Palestinian cause because according to the view it is forbidden to anyone to yield or concede any part of the land they call Palestine.

Organizational Structure:
Hamas is both a terrorist organization and a mass social, political and religious movement. The military branch is reportedly divided into three wings: an intelligence arm which gathers information about Palestinians suspected of collaboration, an arm which pursues those who have violated Islamic law and the Izzedine al-Qassam squads who are responsible for most of the terror attacks. The al-Qassam squads are comprised of a few dozen activists loosely organized into small, terror cells. Hamas' military and political leaders are based throughout the West Bank and Gaza and the organization maintains offices and representatives in Teheran, Damascus and Amman. Hamas has a strong connection with Iran which has made it difficult in the United States supporting Israel if Israel chooses to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities.
Hamas' military wing also utilizes the organization's social wing for indoctrination and recruitment. The social, cultural, religious and educational institutions of Hamas are well-known venues for anti-Israel and anti-Jewish hatred and serve as recruitment centers for Hamas suicide bombers. For example, a Hamas-sponsored soccer team in Hebron provided a ready supply of several Hamas suicide bombers. In early 2006, Hamas began operation of a television station based in Gaza, Al Aksa TV, which broadcasts primarily religious and children's programming. The television program was based on the American Disney icon Mickey Mouse and had the character spewing out its anti-Israeli, anti-Jewish and anti-American rhetoric. Disney took the program to court charging them with copyright violations and the program was forced to remove the character. Even in removing the character from the program the producers were able to use it to spread its venom. The producers had the character killed on the program by mock Israeli soldiers. Since then the producers have added other characters to spread its venom to the young minds of children. Al Aksa TV – which Hamas says it hopes to soon broadcast via satellite to broaden its audience – is likely to become a key tool in propagating Hamas' extremist message. Indeed, the host of the station's children's program told the New York Times that his show "will teach children the basics of militant Palestinian politics."

Financial Support:
Hamas enjoys strong financial backing from Iran (an estimated $20 - $30 million), private benefactors and Muslim charities in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, Palestinian expatriates across the globe and American donors. Recently in the news Dallas held the trial of the Holy Land Foundation which was raising funds to support terrorism against the United States. In the trial evidence was produced linking the organization to Hamas. Its budget has been estimated at $70 million and 85 percent of it reportedly comes from abroad; the remaining 15 percent is raised among Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. A number of Americans and U.S.-based charities have been implicated in funneling money to Hamas. It is estimated that Saudi Arabia continues to channel between $12 - $14 million to Hamas annually. At a June 2003 press conference, Adel al-Jubeir, a senior adviser to the Saudi Crown Prince, did acknowledge that many Palestinian institutions funded by the Saudis may be run or managed by the political wing of Hamas.

Syria remains a key center for Hamas operations, and the Assad regime provides support and protection to key Hamas leadership based in Damascus.
It is clear that we have Hamas in the United States and that the nation of Israel is not the only country at risk. Israel needs our support to help neutralize this group.

My Dream for Independence County

While I am an optimist, and will frame my article as such, I believe that we face some challenges going forward.  I will now dispense with what I believe we should do, can do, and hope to do post December 9^th.

I have a dream that as a county, we can come together regardless of our cultural identities, affiliations, or social circles and address the problems that we have.  When we, as a community, believe as a whole that we can do more good together than we can apart, our success will begin, and it will be difficult to stop.  I have a dream that as a community, this tax will give us a tool to use that will make our economic picture much more attractive, but that as a community we can start to look at other things that need attention and work from us as well.  I believe those issues to be substance abuse in our children, poverty in our working population, and apathy with all those in between.  I believe that when we as leaders and concerned citizens of Independence County realize all that we have in front of us, that as a collective, we can accomplish a great and many things.  You see, all these issues pertain to economic development, and while this vote and subsequent tax is related directly to jobs, these other issues remain and we can not sit idly by while areas of our county are deprived, while people have struggles, and our community still hurts.  Our future was given a significant lift by the passage of this vote, and it begins a new chapter in the legacy of Independence County of which I believe one day we can all be proud.  But we should ask ourselves is this the end or rather a beginning?

I have a dream that we, as residents of Independence County, will start on this journey of  revitalization by which we will see growth all across the county as a result of our vote, by which, we will have tools that will benefit everyone in our area.  I have a dream that ten years from now we will look back on this effort and consider it to be a time and a place by which everyone in this community put aside whatever differences were present, whatever resentments that we harbored, and brought to the forefront of our minds the concern of everyone else in Independence County and said that never again would they let their community get to be in that shape again.  I have a dream that we will all work on issues that share a common good and share a common fate, and those are of economic well being for ours and our posterity.

I have a dream that this effort will be just the beginning in a period of change that we will see in our community that will transfer itself to our youth, and those who genuinely hold the key to future’s door and that they will use with it a passion and a care that they saw in their parents and grandparents and was evident in their action they took to take care of their home, their community, and that of their friends, neighbors, and fellow citizens.  I have a dream that the children of Independence County will have learned a lesson in how a community who collectively became apathetic to important issues collectively became passionate again.  That when the children of Independence County look at this in their years to come, realize and will find true, that people can and will change, and all it takes is a collective effort and that the saying “no man is an island” is true.  They will look back and say that we, the people of Independence County, took steps to secure our future, and for that, they will be thankful for more reasons than can be explained.

I have a dream that does not end with what has just been enumerated in this article, but continues on a path and direction that our youth will set for us in the future.  Our dreams become realities when we take steps to see that they happen, and the only difference between dreamers and visionaries is the passion by which visionaries desire to get things done.  My dream has a lot of visionaries in it but in reality, it is no dream at all.  We have some very passionate people right here in front of us.  For our dreams to become realities, they just have to learn what passion looks like and means again.